Ghana bond market loses steam as investors hold back ahead of MPC decision

Activity in Ghana’s secondary bond market cooled noticeably over the past week, with aggregate turnover declining by 18.16 percent week-on-week to GH¢2.38 billion, a pullback that analysts are largely attributing to investor caution ahead of a key monetary policy decision.

Trading during the period was concentrated in the shorter and medium-term segments of the yield curve, with the 2027–2030 maturity band dominating market flows and accounting for 68.6 percent of total traded volumes at a weighted-average yield of 10.62 percent. The 2031–2034 segment captured 31.36 percent of activity at a weighted-average yield of 12.46 percent.

At the longer end of the curve, participation was strikingly thin. Bonds in the 2035–2038 tenor range contributed just 0.04 percent of total turnover, a marginal figure that underscores the reluctance of investors to commit to longer-dated instruments in the current climate of uncertainty.

Databank Research has attributed the broader softness in market activity to a wait-and-see posture among investors who are holding back ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for Wednesday, March 18, 2026. With the MPC expected to deliver a rate decision that could meaningfully shape the trajectory of yields, market participants appear to be positioning cautiously rather than extending their exposure before the direction becomes clearer.

Looking beyond the meeting, however, Databank Research expressed measured optimism about what lies ahead for the bond market. The research firm anticipates that the monetary easing cycle will continue gradually following the MPC’s decision, a trajectory that, if sustained, should support renewed demand for longer-dated bonds and encourage investors to extend duration along the yield curve.

For now, the market is in a holding pattern. Wednesday’s MPC decision may well be the catalyst that sets it in motion again.

Source: Joy business