Inflation to go up marginally in March – IC Research
Ghana’s inflation is expected to edge up marginally in March following renewed cost pressures from utilities, fuel, and food supply disruptions, according to market research firm IC Research.
In its February 2026 Inflation Analysis, IC Research projected a 60 basis-point rise in annual inflation to 3.9% in March 2026, while forecasting that the month-on-month rate will remain unchanged at 0.8%.
This indicates that while price pressures may be resurfacing, the rate at which prices increase monthly could hold steady for now.
“We expect further push from the belated pass-through of the 1Q2026 [first quarter 2026] utility tariff hike while the Middle East war pushes Brent crude oil above US$83.0 per barrel, higher than the US$ 74.7 per barrel peak seen in March 2025. We believe that higher global energy prices through March 2026 will elevate price inflation for gas & other fuels and trim the transport deflation with upside risk for nonfood and overall inflation,” it said.
The firm also highlighted food-side risks, noting that seasonal and cross-border factors could complicate the inflation outlook. It stated the start of the planting season, combined with disruptions in the cross-border supply of tomatoes could push some food categories such as vegetables and tubers back into inflation after a period of deflation.
It warned that the current disinflation trend may be heading towards a “finish line,” as policymakers await the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision on 18 March, explaining that although headline inflation has been encouraging, the underlying factors are shifting in a way that points to potential new upside risks.
Inflation for February 2026 dropped for the 14th consecutive month, easing to 3.3% from the 3.8% recorded in January.
Food inflation saw a significant fall, dropping to 2.4% year-on-year, while the month-on-month rate slid to 0.2%. Non-food inflation however rose to 4.0% year-on-year, increasing by 30 basis points.
According to IC Research, this is the first time since January 2025 that annual food and non-food inflation moved in opposite directions, warning that this is as an early sign that cost and supply-chain risks are resurfacing.
It further noted that inflation became more “uneven across the non-food basket in February, with fewer divisions recording disinflation and more categories showing rising inflation,” this, it said, is evidence that prices pressures are building in some parts of the economy although the headline inflation figure continues to look stable.
About The Author
