Ethiopia and Eritrea edge closer to war as border tensions escalate
A fragile relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is facing another major test, with renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, disputed reports of foreign troop movements and growing fears that a local conflict could spread across the Horn of Africa.
The warning signs are mounting. Ethiopia says Eritrean forces have entered its territory, while Eritrea insists the allegations are being used to justify an attack against it. Both governments have now taken their grievances to the United Nations, underscoring how sharply relations have deteriorated.
The dispute is unfolding as fighting in Tigray intensifies. Armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), resumed attacks against Ethiopian government forces in late September, capturing the regional capital, Mekelle, and its airport before announcing a withdrawal on October 3.
Government-allied forces have since reported taking control of several towns. Meanwhile, claims that Eritrean troops have crossed into Ethiopia and moved towards areas near the border remain contested and have not been independently confirmed in full.
The diplomatic exchange has been unusually forceful. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos told the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60km into Tigray, calling the alleged incursion an act of aggression. Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh rejected the accusation and asked the council to intervene against what he described as Ethiopia’s threat of war.
Behind the immediate dispute lies a history of conflict and unresolved mistrust. The neighbours fought a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000, then briefly became allies during Ethiopia’s 2020–2022 war against Tigrayan forces. That alliance did not survive the aftermath of the conflict, and Eritrea was excluded from the peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022.
The relationship has since been strained further by Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea. As a landlocked country, Ethiopia sees access to a seaport as a strategic priority. Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, views the issue with suspicion, particularly amid concerns that the port of Assab could become a target.
Analysts say these competing interests make the latest military developments especially dangerous. Hossamaldeen Ibrahim of the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute warned that the countries had entered a period of direct confrontation in which events could escalate quickly.
The danger, analysts argue, is not limited to a deliberate decision by either government to launch a full-scale war. Troop movements, retaliatory attacks and the absence of effective diplomatic communication could trigger a wider conflict before either side has a clear way to contain it.
Any escalation could also affect neighbouring countries and threaten security around the Red Sea. Ethiopia’s rivalry with Eritrea intersects with wider regional tensions, including disputes involving Egypt over the Nile and instability in Sudan and Somalia.
For now, the claims of cross-border incursions remain disputed, and a full-scale war is not inevitable. But with trust between the two governments eroding and fighting continuing in Tigray, the risk of a confrontation extending beyond Ethiopia’s internal conflict is becoming harder to ignore.
Source: Al jezeera
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