What the Israel elections mean for Netanyahu
Israel’s elections are shaping up to be a major test of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future, with record turnout and a closely contested race that could determine whether he remains in power or gives way to a new governing coalition.
Polling published on Friday places Netanyahu almost neck-and-neck with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. However, neither political bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required to form a government, raising the possibility of prolonged negotiations, unexpected alliances or another election.
The vote is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership, with security, democracy and the future direction of Israel dominating the campaign.
Netanyahu’s political future depends on coalition building
Netanyahu, a longstanding figure in Israeli politics who first became prime minister in 1996, faces the challenge of retaining the support of the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that form his current governing coalition. The coalition is considered the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
His main challenger, Eisenkot, leads the newly formed Yashar Party and is the central figure in a coalition of opposition parties united by their goal of ending Netanyahu’s rule. The bloc includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and left-leaning former general Yair Golan, despite their differences on other political issues.
Israel’s proportional representation system requires parties to work together to form governments. Consequently, even a strong showing by either bloc may not be enough to secure power without negotiations and compromises.
Two Arab political blocs are also contesting the election. Although Arab citizens make up about one-fifth of Israel’s population, most major Jewish parties have ruled out working with them, limiting their potential role in government formation.
Security remains central to Netanyahu’s campaign
Netanyahu’s handling of national security has become one of the defining issues of the election. Opposition leaders have criticised his government over the security failures that preceded the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed nearly 1,200 people and saw 251 others taken hostage to Gaza.
The opposition has called for an independent commission of inquiry into the attacks, a proposal Netanyahu has resisted, arguing that such an investigation would be biased against him.
Despite the criticism, Netanyahu has continued to present himself as the candidate best placed to protect Israel. He has pointed to what he describes as strategic successes in regional conflicts and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump.
Reports in the final days of the campaign alleged that Netanyahu had sought further military action against Iran, but that Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir opposed one proposal and Trump declined to approve another. Netanyahu denied the reports.
He also drew attention after sharing an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv, warning that he was the only leader capable of protecting Israel if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot criticised the message.
Democracy and corruption allegations add to the pressure
Netanyahu’s political future is also tied to concerns about democratic institutions and his ongoing corruption trial, in which he denies wrongdoing.
His plans for judicial reforms previously triggered mass protests before the October 2023 attacks. Opposition parties have continued to argue that his leadership raises concerns about democratic governance.
Another divisive issue is military conscription. Netanyahu’s government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox Jewish men engaged in full-time religious study to serve in the military. The issue has created tension because two ultra-Orthodox parties in his coalition oppose conscription and have backed protests against it.
A change in government could therefore affect not only Netanyahu’s political position but also the future of judicial reform, military recruitment and the balance of power among Israel’s political parties.
Gaza and the Palestinians remain key election issues
Although Eisenkot broadly shares Netanyahu’s position on the Gaza Strip, he has pledged to end Hamas rule within 18 months through a US-led peace plan or military action if necessary.
Israel has continued to carry out strikes in Gaza since a ceasefire was agreed last year, saying it is targeting Hamas operatives. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry has reported more than 74,000 deaths since the war began, figures considered reliable by the United Nations.
Israel has also faced growing international criticism over its conduct of the war, contributing to strained relations with some allies.
On the occupied West Bank, Eisenkot broadly supports Israeli settlements but has called for action against extremist settlers whose attacks have reached record levels, according to UN figures. He has also discussed the possibility of Palestinian autonomy or a limited form of statehood under Israeli security control.
The prospect of a fully independent Palestinian state living peacefully alongside Israel has largely receded from mainstream Israeli political debate.
Could Netanyahu lose power despite a close race?
The election outcome will depend not only on the number of seats won by Netanyahu’s Likud party and Eisenkot’s Yashar Party, but also on which smaller parties are willing to support a coalition.
Eisenkot’s bloc faces significant obstacles because its members disagree on several policy issues, while potential coalition partners have established limits on which parties they will work with. Lieberman, for instance, has ruled out supporting an arrangement in which Arab parties informally sustain an Eisenkot-led minority government.
These divisions leave room for negotiations, political compromises and unexpected alliances after the results are announced. Another political leader could also emerge as a compromise candidate if the main contenders fail to assemble a majority.
An outcome in which neither bloc can form a government would risk renewed political deadlock. In that situation, Israel could be forced into another election, with Netanyahu remaining interim prime minister.
The country experienced five elections between 2019 and 2022 as parties struggled to form stable governments.
For Netanyahu, the election is therefore about more than winning the most votes. His ability to remain prime minister will depend on whether his allies retain enough parliamentary strength and whether he can secure the support needed to form a governing coalition.
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