IMF projects stable macroeconomic outlook for Ghana
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that Ghana’s macroeconomic outlook remains generally positive.
While the growth forecast for 2024 has exceeded expectations, the IMF has revised its growth projection for 2025, lowering it to 4.0%, and adjustment it attributed to a more significant negative fiscal impulse than previously estimated, alongside a tighter monetary policy, according to the Fund’s 4th Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme.
Despite this revision, growth is anticipated to rebound to its potential rate of approximately 5.0%, influenced by the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation outcome for 2024.
The report noted that the projected return to the Bank of Ghana’s inflation target band of 8±2% has been postponed until 2026, however, inflation is expected to drop to 12% by the end of 2025, reflecting the effects of both monetary and fiscal policy tightening, as well as the appreciation of the cedi.
According to IMF, adhering to the planned fiscal consolidation path, which includes achieving a primary balance surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2025, and completing the debt restructuring process are key in ensuring that Ghana’s public debt remains on a “sustainable trajectory.”
It added that the Ghana’s Current Account (CA) surplus will rise to 1.8% of GDP in 2025, driven by high gold prices. However, this surplus is expected to gradually decline over the medium term due to the normalization of gold exports and flat remittance flows. The net financial outflows for the private sector are projected to remain high while external debt payments are on the rise.
The Fund reported that the 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. is not likely to have a significant short-term impact on Ghana, given the limited nature of its exports to the U.S., which primarily consist of crude oil that is exempt from the tariff.
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