IMF board likely to approve Ghana’s fifth review in December

Ghana’s economic outlook may receive a major boost before the end of the year as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prepares to consider the country’s fifth review under its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme. According to IC Research, the review is likely to secure board approval in December 2025, a move that could unlock about US$385 million in fresh funding.

If confirmed, the disbursement would offer crucial relief for the government, helping to reinforce Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves and provide fiscal breathing space ahead of a hefty US$689 million Eurobond repayment due in January 2026.

The positive outlook stems from Ghana’s progress in meeting all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the June 2025 assessment period. The IMF, which has in past reviews expressed cautious optimism, appears to have adopted a more confident tone this time. Its staff-level report highlights “strong” steps taken to stabilize the financial sector and “notable strides” in tackling long-standing energy sector issues.

For many observers, this marks a shift from the Fund’s earlier, more reserved assessments. The first four reviews reflected a gradual erosion in confidence, moving from “strong” to “marked deterioration” as fiscal pressures, inflation, and structural challenges persisted. The fifth review, however, signals a possible turning point.

IC Research interprets the IMF’s tone as a sign of trust in Ghana’s economic recovery and in the Bank of Ghana’s management of disinflation. With inflation now trending toward the central bank’s medium-term target of 8% ±2%, analysts anticipate that the next phase could see a cautious easing of monetary policy.

A successful board approval in December would not only stabilize Ghana’s external position but also strengthen investor confidence at a time when the country is navigating post-debt-restructuring challenges. As of August 2025, Ghana’s international reserves stood at US$8.4 billion, equal to 3.6 months of import cover, exceeding programme targets.

If sustained, the positive sentiment surrounding the fifth review could mark the beginning of a new economic phase, one defined not just by stabilization but by gradual recovery and renewed market trust in Ghana’s policy direction.