Ghana’s revenue plans face commodity-price shocks and tax-cut drag

Accounting firm PwC Ghana has warned that Ghana’s 2026 revenue goals could be rocked by swings in global commodity prices as well as what it termed as the near-term fiscal trade-offs that accompany with tax policy changes aimed at easing burdens on households and businesses.

According to the firm, Ghana’s main vulnerability in the 2026 fiscal framework is its exposure to commodity price and volume volatility, given the country’s reliance on export earnings from commodities such as gold, oil and cocoa.

“The revenue forecast for 2026 is exposed to commodity price and volume volatility, a risk we have little control over, as we are price takers on the commodity markets,” PwC wrote in its 2026 West Africa Economic Outlook report, adding that this exposure “puts some budgeted capex at risk,” pointing to the knock-on effect commodity swings could have on infrastructure and other investment plans.

PwC noted that gold’s strong performance is expected to sustain for a while, but cautioned that a downturn, while “not expected by market analysts,” will have immediate impacts on the government’s ability to continuously fund major projects, particularly where commodity receipts are tied to earmarked infrastructure spending.

The report further explained that tax cuts, which are often expected to boost economic activity, can weaken revenue performance in the short run unless compliance and enforcement improvements offset the rate and levy changes.

“The VAT reforms are expected to result in reduced collections in the near-term, unless enforcement and digitalization gains materialize in a timely manner,” the firm previously noted in its 2026 Budget Digest.

The firm also pointed to government’s plan to fund Big Push Infrastructure Project (BPIP) largely through extractive-sector receipts, such as oil and gold, rather than external borrowing, an approach PwC says is not “flawed” in concept, but vulnerable given the “weaknesses in revenue collection systems and exposure to commodity swings.”

On a regional scale, PwC projected a 4.2% GDP growth for West Africa in 2026, slightly lower than an estimated 4.4% in 2025, while noting Ghana’s 2025 performance and pointing to continued reforms as “a support for macroeconomic stability.”