El Niño could trigger fresh inflationary pressures in Ghana – Govt Statistician
Ghana’s inflation outlook could come under renewed pressure from the expected El Niño weather phenomenon, which may disrupt food production, electricity generation and global supply chains, Government Statistician Dr Alhassan Iddrisu has cautioned.
He warned that shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures associated with the climate event could affect agricultural production, reduce food supplies and drive up prices, creating additional inflationary pressures.
Speaking at the release of Ghana’s October 2026 inflation figures, which recorded an increase to 5.5 per cent, Dr Iddrisu urged policymakers to prepare for the potential impact of El Niño by incorporating available weather forecasts into economic planning and policy decisions.
“Policymakers should take their predictions and then look at the right policy interventions to put in place to mitigate their impact,” he said.
He explained that reduced rainfall could undermine agricultural output, particularly if farmers do not receive sufficient rain during the planting and growing seasons.
“If, for example, it affects rainfall and we don’t get enough rain, that’s likely to affect food supply and all other things being equal. If there are shortages in food supply, that can affect food prices,” he cautioned.
Dr Iddrisu also identified electricity generation as another area that could be affected by the weather phenomenon, with possible consequences for prices and business activities.
He noted that Ghana’s dependence on hydropower means reduced rainfall could lower water inflows into the Akosombo Dam and other reservoirs, potentially affecting electricity production.
Disruptions to power supply could, in turn, affect businesses and industrial activities, increase operating costs and push up the prices of goods and services.
He pointed out that electricity is one of the components measured under the Consumer Price Index, making developments in the power sector an important factor in the country’s inflation outlook.
The Government Statistician further warned that the impact of El Niño could extend beyond Ghana, particularly through higher prices of imported food and other commodities.
He said adverse weather conditions in countries that supply Ghana, especially in parts of Asia, could disrupt production and push up import costs, eventually feeding into domestic inflation.
“These are some of the possible impacts of El Niño on the country and their transmission mechanisms to prices,” he said.
Dr Iddrisu also singled out cocoa as a commodity that could be affected, warning that disruptions to production could have consequences for cocoa prices.
“I must also say that usually it affects cocoa a lot. And when it affects cocoa, it affects cocoa prices,” he added.
His comments follow a warning from the Ghana Meteorological Agency about a developing severe El Niño event, which could affect rainfall, agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation. The agency has identified November 2026 to April 2027 as the main period of concern for Ghana.
Dr Iddrisu urged policymakers to incorporate the forecasts into economic assessments and planning, stressing that early action would be crucial to protecting households and businesses from potential disruptions.
He said the forecasts issued by the Meteorological Agency should inform policy analysis and guide the development of measures to minimise the anticipated effects before they translate into significant challenges for food supplies, electricity generation and prices.
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